Can We Expect a Repeat?

Can We Expect a Repeat?

As Chris Moneymaker pumped his fists high in the air after winning the 2003 WSOP, becoming the first legitimate online poker amateur to defeat a field overrun with professionals, the entire world took notice and asked a simple question: Will another professional ever win the poker tournament again? Of course, this was in no way a slight to the brilliant and oh-so dangerous pros of the world. It was just obvious that Moneymaker’s sudden shot to stardom and beyond would turn the world on its head.

People were not wrong. The year Chris won the Main Event the top prize was two-point-five million. The following year, the prize pool literally doubled to five million, meaning that the field had doubled, meaning that another extremely diverse and extremely large group of people wanted to follow in his footsteps. And to the people curious if another pro could ever win the tournament again, what about that? Well, since Chris’ victory, the field has been dominated by amateurs; Greg Raymer, Joseph Hachem, Jamie Gold, Jerry Yang and Peter Eastgate – all amateurs and all winners of the Main Event.

Poker, especially Texas Hold’em, has its fair share of wise sayings. One states that it’s better to be lucky than good. Another saying states that it takes more than luck to win. Which is true, or is it a combination of the two? Were these amateur players just luckier than everyone else, or, perhaps could it be that their online playing habits had honed their skills to a level above what professionals could handle? This is a question that only time will answer.

Most professional poker players have a way of getting their heads around the fact that a professional hasn’t won the world’s biggest poker tournament since 2001: Carlos Mortensen. They claim that it’s pure statistics, baby. The same principle that keeps every person from striking rich at land-based and online casinos has made it statistically improbable for a professional to go home with the bracelet: Odds.

With pros outnumbered 20 to 1, they’re automatically a 20:1 underdog to win. And if you think the odds are working against the poker pros on this one, wait until you hear the odds of any one individual winning. The year Jamie Gold won his title (2006), there were over 8,500 entrants. That means he went off—considering all things being equal—at 8500:1. But factor in that he was a staunch amateur, a blowhard, and a player that relied mostly on luck, taking the raw numbers out and playing oddsmaker, Gold was about 30000:1 to win in some circles! The odds of him repeating – you’d have no trouble finding a bookie to triple that number.

There are simply too many factors involved in a poker tournament to consider; too many probabilities. If you’re waiting on the edge of your seat for a professional to win, you can look for even money on that. However, if you’re waiting to see one of the recent amateur winners to take the bracelet again in the near future, I hope you aren’t holding your breath. No one’s that lucky. But we’ll see how it goes this summer when the 2009 edition of the WSOP is dealt out.